XRP Price Swings: Analyst Eyes Rapid Move To $4.50

On Tuesday, XRP, the native cryptocurrency of Ripple’s XRPL blockchain, faced rejection after hitting its highest price point in nearly two weeks at $3.04. The move upwards was largely driven by speculation surrounding a potential spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) launch in the United States and increased institutional participation in XRP derivatives.

These catalysts have raised expectations about whether the third-largest crypto by market capitalization might revisit the $3.60 level, last seen in July 2025.

XRP Futures Interest Soars as Investors Anticipate Rapid Price Breakout

Demand for XRP futures climbed 5% over the past 30 days, totalling 2.69 billion XRP, equivalent to $7.99 billion at current rates. More importantly, the number of outstanding XRP futures contracts listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) jumped 74% during the same period, hitting 386 million XRP ($1.14 billion). This increase highlights strong participation in Ripple’s market from professional fund managers and market makers.

Higher futures trading activity often indicates interest in the asset and can provide signals of leverage imbalances, as long and short positions are always balanced. During neutral market conditions, XRP futures typically trade 5% to 10% above spot markets to account for the longer settlement period. 

At the moment, XRP monthly futures trade at a 7% premium over its market rate, suggesting that leveraged demand remains balanced, which is consistent with the pattern seen during the past month. However, the reason for the muted outlook on XRP is due to its underperformance compared to the broader altcoin market cap.

While the altcoin market grew 14% since August, the price of XRP has remained relatively flat. The alt rally was supported by gains made by Hyperliquid (HYPE), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Ether (ETH). XRP’s most notable gains last month came following the settlement of a years-long legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Bloomberg Analysts Give 90% Odds of Potential U.S. XRP ETF Approval by November

The main catalyst behind XRP’s current price performance is the anticipation of an XRP ETF in the United States. Bloomberg analysts are giving a 90% odds of approval for the exchange-traded product tracking XRP, but a final decision from the SEC on the matter can only be expected in late October. Asset managers, including CoinShares, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Canary Capital, and REX-Osprey, among others, have submitted applications to list and trade a spot XRP ETF.

There is a chance that the REX-Osprey XRP fund, which combines ETF with exchange-traded notes (ETN), could arrive much earlier, as it does not require a direct SEC approval.

Meanwhile, RLUSD, Ripple’s USD-backed stablecoin, hit $700 million in assets under management (AUM), generating widespread attention. However, nearly 90% of the token’s supply was issued on the Ethereum blockchain, creating little to no direct demand for the XRPL network. Furthermore, the stablecoin market is dominated by established players with deeper liquidity, such as Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC.

CryptoInsightUK Predicts XRP Could Target New ATH if it Breaks Past $3.40 Resistance

In his latest market breakdown, crypto analyst ‘CryptoInsightUK’ noted that XRP has reached a “liquidity flashpoint” that could lead to an acceleration in price discovery for the coin toward mid-$4 levels once it reclaims key resistance levels. He highlighted a cluster of liquidity sitting above the $3.40 area, with an improving relative strength index (RSI) versus BTC, ETH, and even gold. However, he cautioned that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, due tomorrow, could inject short-term volatility.

The analyst cited that while the move could be to the upside, there is still liquidity sitting below the current price, and that could be “swept” before XRP continues moving forward. He framed the recent momentum as constructive but “choppy”, creating a pattern of slightly higher lows that would quickly invalidate if XRP loses one of its pivot points.

Also Read: XRP Price Prediction – September 2025: Can ETF Hype Push Ripple Beyond $5?

He believes that XRP is “looking pretty strong” right now, forming a nice bottoming pattern with a clear breakout; however, it is fighting against previous swing highs. It is necessary for XRP to sequentially close above successive resistance levels, including the zone just under $3.40, after which the path to previous peaks opens up. Breaking past those levels could put all-time highs “back on the table”, he said. XRP is up 11% from a recent local bottom, and is widely expected to make another 10% breakthrough.

The analyst also noted that on the daily chart, XRP has significant liquidity above its current price level and that over the past 2-3 days, more liquidity has been building up. He said that once XRP breaks the $3.40 level, it could resume its march toward the all-time high range between $4.20 – $4.30, and then realistically target $4.50, where the futures liquidity is currently lying.

His bottom line for XRP is to reclaim and hold above $3.40, then convert that resistance into support, resulting in the liquidity magnets at $4.20 – $4.50 coming into play. Failure to test the resistance zone could lead to the price declining to harvest downside liquidity, before a renewed rally.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.97, down 1.61% in the last 24 hours.