Standard Chartered Delays $500K Bitcoin Target, Revises Long-Term Outlook

Standard Chartered, one of the leading international banking groups, has reframed its Bitcoin forecast, readjusting market expectations based on Bitcoin’s halving cycle and the impact of exchange-traded fund (ETF)-driven demand. They attributed the lower price target to shifts in Bitcoin’s market structure and weaker near-term momentum. 

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in a note on December 9, 2025, that Bitcoin’s performance had forced the bank to recalibrate its projections. He explained that the roughly 36% decline from October’s all-time high to around $80,500 by late November still fell within what they considered “normal” expectations, but acknowledged that their previous near-term targets were wrong. Kendrick added that, despite the revision, Standard Chartered continued to stand by its long-term view that Bitcoin would eventually reach USD 500,000.

Standard Chartered was forced to revise the prediction due to the lack of support that Bitcoin treasury companies, known as digital asset treasuries, provide to the BTC rally. According to Standard Chartered, the impact of Bitcoin treasury companies is fading away and is no longer a catalyst that is expected to provide monumental support to the BTC rally. They believe that since the demand for treasury companies fades, the future gains of Bitcoin will be heavily dependent on ETF inflows. Kendrick opined that the bitcoin halving cycle is not a reliable catalyst for BTC’s price behavior. According to him, “ETF flows have become a ‘much more important price driver.”    

VanEck and Bernstein: BTC Breaks 4-Year Trend, Long-Term $1M Target Intact

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at Vaneck, and the bank’s analyst, explained that, with the advent of ETF buying, they no longer considered the BTC halving cycle to be a relevant price driver. He added that the logic observed in previous cycles, when US ETFs did not exist, with prices typically peaking about 18 months after each halving and then declining, was no longer valid in their view. However, he noted that a break above the current all-time high of USD 126,000, set on 6 October 2025, would be required to confirm this, and they expected such a move to occur in the first half of 2026.

He also posted the revised BTC forecast for the next four years, including 2025. He lowered his Bitcoin forecasts, cutting the 2025 target from $200,000 to $100,000. The 2026 projection was reduced from $300,000 to $200,000, while the 2027 estimate dropped from $400,000 to $225,000. For 2028, the forecast was revised down from $500,000 to $300,000. 

Bernstein, a major Wall Street research firm, asserts that BTC is not following its old pattern anymore. Their analysis concludes that Bitcoin is currently driven by institutional investors and ETF momentum rather than retail traders. The firm stated that, given recent market adjustments, it believed the Bitcoin cycle had broken the traditional four-year pattern of peaks and was now entering an extended bull market. It noted that more resilient institutional buying was offsetting panic selling from retail investors. The firm added that, although Bitcoin had retraced about 30%, ETF outflows remained below 5%. They have also forecasted BTC’s price outlook. According to them, Bitcoin’s long-term price expectation (until 2033) remains around $1,000,000.

Also Read: Crypto Market Stabilizes as $2B Liquidation Spurs Capital Rotation to BTC and ETH