Polymarket Betters Predict U.S. Government Shutdown To Continue Until November
Key Points
- Polymarket users are betting on the current U.S. government shutdown to continue until November 16, 2025. Users have placed nearly $500,000 in bets on the date they expect the political standoff to end.
- 25% of bettors forecast the shutdown to last 46 days – marking the longest non-operational period for the federal government since 2018, when it went on for little over a month.
- Republican and Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate have yet to reach a consensus on a government spending bill for the 2026 fiscal year, resulting in 1.4 million federal employees being left on unpaid leave or working without pay.
The odds of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown stretching for another month have jumped as negotiations between Republican and Democratic lawmakers to pass a funding bill in the Senate continue to fail.
According to bets made on the Polygon-based prediction markets platform Polymarket, 29% of betters predict (at the time of writing) that the shutdown could become one of the longest in the nation’s history, lasting at least until November 7th.
Source: Polymarket.com
Should that prediction come true, then it would mark 46 days – surpassing the previous record of 35 days from 2018. However, other betters speculated that the political standoff will come to a close much sooner, with 23% expecting it to end sometime between October-end and early-November. Meanwhile, 18% of Polymarket participants estimate the shutdown to end much sooner between October 23 and October 26.
Polymarket Bets Forecast U.S. Government Shutdown to Last Until Mid-November, Marking the Longest in History
The shutdown began on October 1 after Senate lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on a spending bill that would have allocated funding to the federal government for its services into the 2026 fiscal year.
Under the US governance system, different branches have to reach an agreement on spending plans before they can become law. Although the Republicans, led by President Donald Trump, currently control both chambers of Congress – the House and Senate – in the Senate, they are short of 60 votes to pass the bill, giving the Democrats negotiation power.
Democrats want the Trump administration to extend the expiring tax credits on Medicaid health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, and they also oppose spending cuts to government healthcare agencies. The Republicans rejected this proposal, leading to the first U.S. government shutdown in nearly seven years.
While a stopgap bill designed to avoid the closure was passed in the lower chamber (House), it failed to clear the Senate. As the shutdown has now entered its fourth week, the Republican and Democratic politicians are no closer to an agreement on how to resolve the ongoing budget dispute.
1.4M Federal Workers Affected, Trump Admin Pays Military, Law Enforcement, and Border Patrol
This also means that around 1.4 million federal employees are on unpaid leave or working without pay, as several key U.S. government agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Education, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, and the Department of Agriculture, are impacted by the shutdown.
While essential services like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the U.S. Postal Service, air traffic control, law enforcement, and military operations continue, they may face disruptions due to unpaid workers. The Trump administration has paid certain federal employees, specifically law enforcement, border agents, and military personnel, using a selective payment strategy that redirected funds from other government programs, such as defense research and development projects and taxes collected under the recently passed “One Big Beautiful Bill”.
Legislative Efforts and Market Predictions
Last week, the Senate voted on a bill to end the shutdown, but only two Democrats – Catherine Cortez-Masto and John Fetterman – voted in favor, while the rest opposed. Senate Majority Leader John Thune told the media that the Republicans are willing to make a deal to hold a vote on the Affordable Care Act subsidies, which have been the negotiation point for the Democrats. However, it is yet to be seen whether this offer will be enough to convince both sides to agree.
The House of Representatives has not been in session since September 19.
Polymarket traders have bet nearly $500,000 on the date of the government reopening. Bettors on Kalshi have given a 70% chance that the shutdown would last longer than 25 days and become the longest ever, with 51% saying it could go beyond 40 days and a 39% chance that it would stretch over 45 days.
Crypto Executives Set to Meet with Senate Democrats to Advance Digital Asset Market Structure Bill
These polls come as key blockchain and crypto executives are preparing to meet with Democratic senators on Wednesday in hopes of advancing a digital asset market structure bill.
The roundtable meeting, to be headed by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, will feature Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz, Chainlink CEO Sergey Nazarov, Kraken CEO David Ripley, Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith, and Crypto in America journalist Eleanor Terrett.
Other participants in the October 22 event include Jito CLO Rebecca Rettig, Circle CSO Dante Disparte, Uniswap CEO Hayden Adams, Ripple CLO Stuart Alderoty, and a16z general counsel Miles Jennings.
Also Read: SEC Delays Crypto ETF Decisions Amid U.S. Government Shutdown — Will October Be Bullish for Crypto?
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