Glassnode’s James Check Adamant $200K BTC Won’t Happen In 2025 – Bulls And Bears Fight To Take Control

Glassnode analyst James Check believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is highly unlikely to hit the coveted $200,000 mark this year because the current buying volume isn’t strong enough to push the price higher continually.

The odd projection comes amid speculation from several industry titans and experts that the flagship cryptocurrency will soon hit the milestone, as institutional buying through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries surge to record levels.

James Check Doubtful of $200,000 Bitcoin This Year as Buying Volume Doesn’t Support Price Action

During his appearance on the ‘Less Noise More Signal’ podcast on Monday, Check remarked that Bitcoin targeting $200,000 in six months “is a big move”. While the Glassnode lead analyst said that it could “absolutely” happen, he is not confident of an imminent move until buying volume kicks in. Check’s reasoning is that such a move would mean doubling the current BTC market capitalization of $2.38 trillion.

“I’m probably not going to go on the risk curve until I see that the market is stabilized,” he added.

According to Check, Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in multiple stages, with the first stage requiring the price to surpass $120,000, which it did on July 14, followed by $130,000, $140,000, and $150,000. He noted that it is one thing to get to these points, but a whole different ball game for the price to remain there.

Check warned that if the price rises too fast without maintaining a strong, stable support, then it could fall just as quickly. He also acknowledged that no one really knows where Bitcoin is headed. Despite his doubts on the price, he remains bullish and believes that the alpha cryptocurrency will be “well and truly” above the $200,000 price level in five years.

Meanwhile, several prominent cryptocurrency analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin will reach the mark by the end of 2025. 

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, predicted that a $200,000 BTC is possible this year due to a supply shock from heightened institutional demand. Bernstein Research also made a similar forecast way back in October 2024, citing increased demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs and BTC treasury companies.

Pseudonymous market analyst “apsk32” based their $200K projection on Bitcoin reclaiming its power-law price in April, which measures its value in relation to the blockchain’s growth, user adoption, transaction volume, and hash power.

Historical Performance Indicates Bitcoin’s Rally Could End in October, which Marks 550 Days Since 2024 Halving

However, Rekt Capital’s analysis is on par with Check, highlighting that if the current Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, then the bull market is likely to peak in October, leaving it with only two to three months of price expansion. The analyst acknowledged that many market participants are ignoring Bitcoin’s halving cycle, instead chasing new narratives such as the correlation with the global M2 Money Supply to predict a possible cycle extension lasting until 2026.

He warned that looking at new metrics to forecast BTC price is an impulsive reaction, and such an “emotional thing” could cloud judgements. Rekt Capital called the halving cycle a “time-tested” principle that is crucial to rely on.

Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin’s price rallied for 550 days, peaking in October 2021 as it recorded a then-all-time high of $69,000. If Rekt Capital’s forecast is to go by, then October would mark 550 days since last year’s halving, which saw the apex crypto’s supply reduce by 50%, from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC/block.

BTC Struggles to Maintain Price Momentum as Retail Investors Induce Sell Pressure for a Better Entry Point

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain its momentum after hitting a new all-time high of $123,100 last week. This stalled price action seems to be driven by sell pressure from retail traders on centralized exchanges.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Net Taker Volume, which indicates that market takers are predominantly executing sell trades, turned negative after dropping below $60 million. This reading indicates that there is a growing bearish sentiment among retail BTC holders, even as the digital currency holds near record levels.

Regional Bitcoin demand also supports this notion. In the United States, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap for BTC between Coinbase and other global exchanges, has remained flat for most of July. Despite the rally, US spot buyers appear hesitant as they are either taking profits or sitting out in anticipation of prices falling for a better entry point.

Meanwhile, in South Korea, the Premium Index has slipped into negative territory, signalling that Bitcoin is now trading at a discount on regional exchanges. This divergence indicates ongoing selling pressure in the market and a broader lack of enthusiasm among Korean retail traders.

Experts are dismissing the bearish sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin holding above $115,000 is an encouraging sign. Crypto analyst Boris Vest noted that the ongoing liquidity battle between sellers who are absorbed near $116,000 and buyers capped near $120,000 reflects a healthy two-sided market.

Despite the aggressive sell pressure on the Binance exchange, the recent negative $4.1 billion cumulative volume delta (CVD) was immediately absorbed by the $2.3 billion buying spree. This means that demand remains resilient at lower price levels, and as long as Bitcoin continues to defend the mid-$110,000 region, bulls will maintain control. The longer this range holds, the more likely it is to set the stage for a price breakout that favors the prevailing uptrend.

Bitcoin Price Could Still Target $140,000 This Cycle

A breakout above $120,000 remains possible, and a move into this zone would likely trigger liquidations and a strong rally beyond the current peak as price inefficiencies in the daily fair value gap (FVG) between $112,000 and $115,200 will be filled, providing the fuel necessary. Bitcoin must showcase a sharp bullish reaction for this scenario to play out, as a failure to rebound quickly after taking out the recent lows near $115,700 could result in fading momentum and risk downward pressure.

The strength and speed of the bounce upon retesting the FVG zone will play a key role in determining whether the BTC price rally is primed for continuation or a deeper retracement.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes that Bitcoin remains in the growth zone as market participants still support buying activity. He noted that the market is yet to enter the “excessive optimism” phase, and there is still room for further upside toward $140,000 without a serious risk of overheating.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $118,635, up 0.70% in the last 24 hours.