Grayscale Projects Bitcoin to Reach New Record High by Early 2026

Bitcoin’s expected market performance and momentum in 2026 has become one of the most widely discussed subjects in the broader cryptocurrency market. Grayscale, the prominent digital asset manager, published its 2026 outlook report on Monday, exploring the new possibilities of the digital asset sector and the performance of in-demand virtual assets such as Bitcoin.

According to the asset manager, the broader cryptocurrency market will see a structural shift in digital asset investing, driven by two major factors: macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity. They believe that the combined effects of these two factors will bring in new capital, broaden adoption, and integrate public blockchains more seamlessly into mainstream financial infrastructure. Grayscale opines that crypto is moving from a niche and is on the verge of becoming a regular part of the global financial system by 2026.

Grayscale Outlook Report predicts that Bitcoin will break its all-time high in early 2026. According to the report, BTC is expected to reach a new all‑time high in the first half of 2026, reflecting the cryptocurrency market’s transition into a more mature, institution‑driven sector. The report stated that they expected rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called “four-year cycle,” or the theory that the crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern. It added that Bitcoin’s price would likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year, in their view.

Grayscale strongly claims that 2026 will mark the end of the Bitcoin four-year cycle, which is its historical price pattern linked to the halving events that roughly happen every four years. According to their evaluation, they expect rising valuations across all six crypto sectors in 2026. They noted that strong institutional inflows driven by clearer US crypto regulation, including spot Bitcoin ETFs and the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, will impact the BTC rally, and its growth will be structurally driven rather than the traditional four-year cycle. 

Grayscale Cites Macro Demand and Clearer Rules as Key Drivers of Its Optimistic Forecast

Grayscale claims that there are two major pillars for their optimistic outlook. According to them, the first pillar is the ongoing macro demand for alternative stores of value. Bitcoin and Ethereum are two of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, and they are considered scarce digital commodities and alternatives for monetary assets like fiat currency. Grayscale believes that fiat currencies face increased risks due to high and rising public sector debt, ultimately leading to inflation over time. Bitcoin’s and Ether’s limited supply, similar to gold and silver, makes them luxury alternatives to fiat currency. The asset management firm opined that Bitcoin and Ether could potentially serve as a ballast in portfolios for fiat currency risks. They added that as long as the risk of fiat currency debasement kept rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether would likely continue rising as well, in their view.

The second pillar is the anticipated regulatory clarity in 2026. According to them, the crypto industry has been operating in a confused regulatory environment for these years. Multiple crypto service-providing companies like Coinbase, Ripple, Binance, and others were dealing with government investigations or lawsuits. But in 2025, after Donald Trump’s second visit to the White House, things had changed, and the majority of the legal battles were over, and cases were dropped, improving the regulatory environment of the crypto sector.

Grayscale analysts believe that 2026 will be pivotal as the authorities implement new regulations and compliance in the sector. Grayscale analysts commented that in 2026, they expected Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation, which would likely cement blockchain-based finance in U.S. capital markets and facilitate continued institutional investment.