Bitcoin Price Prediction : Will the BTC Drop to $80k Amid the BOJ Rate Hike Fears?
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is currently trading at around $89,393.33, and the price ticked down by 0.94% in the past 24 hours.
- The price of BTC is projected to remain in $87k to $90k zone for today.
- If Bitcoin fails to hold $89,573.08, the downside risk toward $80k cannot be ruled out.
- As for the upcoming week, the BTC price trajectory will largely depend on whether the BOJ rate hike can outweigh institutional interests.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Scenario: How is BTC Faring Now?
The world’s most valued cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is currently trading at around $89,393.33, and the price ticked down by 0.94% in the past 24 hours. The market cap touched $1.78 trillion. Trading volume over the last 24 hours dropped by 27.74%. Moreover, the BTC is trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The Fear & Greed Index reading of 21 also suggests extreme fear in the market. The overall market sentiment remains bearish amid the macro uncertainties. The following are the key market indicators and their value.
- Fear & Greed Index: 21 (Extreme Fear)
- Market Sentiment: Bearish
- Supply Inflation: 0.87% (Low)
- Dominance: 58.65%
- Volatility: 3.02% (Medium)
Bitcoin Price Prediction Today
The price of BTC is projected to remain in $87k to $90k zone for today. If Bitcoin fails to hold $89,573.08 amid the macro pressure, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) staying below 50 and a weakening trading volume, the downside risk toward $80k cannot be ruled out.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Tomorrow, & This Week
As for the upcoming week, the BTC price trajectory will largely depend on whether the BOJ rate hike can outweigh institutional interests. The price is forecasted to remain within a range of $85k to $91k. A downside risk towards a 77k zone can not be dismissed, considering the dynamic nature of the crypto market and prevailing risk-off sentiment.
| Date | Day of week | Daily Low | Daily High | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12 | Tuesday | $89,446.9 | $91,883.74 | $90,665.32 |
| 17/12 | Wednesday | $91,510.05 | $91,770.75 | $91,640.4 |
| 18/12 | Thursday | $89,207.53 | $90,849.75 | $90,028.64 |
| 19/12 | Friday | $89,426.9 | $90,048.75 | $89,737.83 |
| 20/12 | Saturday | $87,929.3 | $89,713.29 | $88,821.3 |
| 21/12 | Sunday | $85,740.27 | $89,551.14 | $87,645.71 |
| 22/12 | Monday | $86,237.31 | $89,077.74 | $87,657.53 |
Market Outlook: Technicals, Institutional Activity & Macro Trends
The price of bitcoin largely depends on institutional interest, signals from technical indicators, and macro trends. Here is a detailed look at each of these factors.
Technical Indicators Suggest Bearish Momentum with Price Charts Showing a Bear Flag Formation
The BTC is trading below the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44 indicates the continued weakness. However, the MACD histogram showed a bullish crossover, which likely indicates consolidation rather than a strong recovery.
The price chart of BTC is showing a bear flag formation. The price consolidation after dropping from $105k – $111,000 follows a bear flag pattern, where such a bounce shows a temporary pause before the downtrend continues. If Bitcoin drops below the downside support of the bear flag pattern, it is likely to trigger another wave of sell-offs. The price may plunge to $70k to $75k zone under such conditions.
Nevertheless, the next support levels available for BTC are $82k to $87k. The traders are closely watching whether BTC can hold that support zone amid an unfavourable macro environment.
The Liquadations Drag Down the Price While Institutional Interest Remains Intact
Amid the uncertainties, the $184 million in futures was reportedly liquidated from the crypto market in the past 24 hours. The BTC accounts for a lion’s share of the liquidations, strengthening the bearish sentiments.
Despite the uncertainties, the BTC spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of $49.16 million on Friday, December 12. The largest BTC treasury holder, Michael Saylor’s Strategy ( MSTR), has hinted at buying BTC again. He posted “₿ack to More Orange Dots on X. The Strategy Inc. currently holds 660,624 BTC valued at around $59.2 billion based on the prevailing market price. It accounts for 3.146% of the total BTC supply.
The investors are closely watching whether his move could keep the BTC price hovering around $88k instead of crashing to $70k to $77k zone.
Macroeconomic Factors: The Likelihood of BOJ Rate Hike Fuels Risk-Off Sentiments
The major factor that’s fueling the risk-off sentiment across the crypto market is the likelihood of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In Polymarket, the traders are pricing in a 97% probability for a 25 basis point rate hike on December 19. The monetary tightening in Japan is strengthening the Yen and increasing bond yields, making speculative and riskier assets such as crypto less attractive. The BOJ’s rate hikes often coincided with the price decline of BTC.
The Bottom Line: What’s Ahead for BTC?
Bitcoin price movements are largely shaped by the prevailing macro conditions, ecosystem developments, and institutional interest. Whether Bitcoin can avoid a sharp pullback to 77k or worse will depend on how investors respond to the hawkish monetary policy developments in Japan. The traders are also closely watching whether a renewed Bitcoin purchase by Strategy can offset the macro pressure stemming from BOJ rate hike fears.
Disclaimer: These crypto price forecasts are based on predictive modeling and should not be considered financial advice.
Also Read: UK Treasury Confirms FCA to Enforce New Crypto Laws Starting 2027
Crypto & Blockchain Expert