Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden Just Transferred His Final 2,499 BTC to Kraken: Bear Market Signal?
Key Takeaways
- Owen Gunden, a prominent whale who accumulated Bitcoin since 2011, has emptied his portfolio today with the transfer of the remaining 2,499 BTC to Kraken hours ago.
- As a Bitcoin OG who once held around 15K BTC, the exit of Gunden has ignited significant panic in the market.
- Various market indicators signal a bear phase for BTC in the coming months.
- Despite the sell-offs and short-term volatility, Bitcoin is bullish for the long-term due to regulatory optimism and the anticipation of inflows from traditional finance.
Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden has transferred all of his remaining 2,499 BTC to the Kraken exchange hours ago, wrapping up his month-long Bitcoin sell-off. As an angel investor who accumulated more than 10,000 BTC since the early days of Bitcoin, his on-chain activity has been monitored closely by the crypto investors, and today’s emptying of his wallet has created FUD in the market.
Owen Gunden has deposited last 2,499 $BTC, worth $227.94M, into #Kraken, 2 hours ago.https://t.co/fjqIGflm7B pic.twitter.com/ZVPIdF1KpD
— Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) November 20, 2025
Owen Gunden Offloads Entire Holdings After the $1.5B Peak Portfolio Value, Raising Questions About Bear Market
The on-chain data reveals that Owen Gunden began his Bitcoin accumulation in 2011 and was engaged as a trader on exchanges like Mt. Gox and Tradehill. Over the years, he accumulated nearly 15K BTC and sold around 3.5K in the 2022 bull run. Since then, he maintained the 11.5K balance for three years, making his portfolio worth $1.5 billion when BTC reached its all-time high on October 7, 2025. Following the ATH, he began aggressive sell-offs, with major transfers occurring in the past two weeks.
The gradual transfers of Owen Gunden can be considered as a strategic profit-taking, exhibiting reduced risk and maximum returns. However, unlike the previous bull markets, Gunden has completely emptied his portfolio, which never happened in the past 14 years of his holding. It indirectly creates an impression that the recent ATH could become the final ATH.
Is the 2025 Bitcoin Peak Already Behind Us? BTC Price Prediction
The overall market sentiment of BTC aligns towards a bearish state, primarily due to the weak technicals and the skepticism among investors. However, the on-chain data reveals that the whale wallets holding more than 1000 BTC have increased despite the sell-offs by Owen Gunden. Whale activity surged when BTC slipped to $88,526, creating a quick rebound to $93,000. This signals that the oversold condition of BTC has been attracting whales, and it will likely ignite a bullish breakout soon.
The regulatory developments, such as the removal of crypto from the SEC’s Examination Priorities for the Fiscal Year 2026 and the restart of the initiative to develop the Crypto Market Structure Bill following the conclusion of the shutdown, point towards a greener movement for Bitcoin in the coming months. Still, the issues such as the impact of quantum computing in cryptography and the absence of a significant rebound to $100,000 make it a risky investment option at the moment. According to market analyst CryptoVizArt, a downfall into the True Market Mean of $82K will likely ignite the bear market.
The shift from a confirmed bull to a true bear market often comes after multiple major on-chain price models fail:
— CryptoVizArt.₿ (@CryptoVizArt) November 19, 2025
🔴STH Cost Basis: $109.8K
🟡Active Investors Mean: $88.6K
🟢True Market Mean: $82K
🔵Realized Price:… pic.twitter.com/q9ovd4rqnN
Bitcoin Price Prediction: 2025 and 2026
The month-wise forecast till December 2026 suggests that Bitcoin could surge above $100K in early 2026, peaking to a yearly high of $105,000 by February 2025. Then, it will likely begin a decline, potentially reaching a minimum value of $75K by the end of 2026. A detailed table follows.
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | $ 82,949 | $ 90,331 | $ 98,000 | 6.23% |
| Dec 2025 | $ 92,408 | $ 94,570 | $ 97,328 | 5.50% |
| Jan 2026 | $ 89,000 | $ 93,443 | $ 102,134 | 10.72% |
| Feb 2026 | $ 102,754 | $ 104,009 | $ 105,000 | 13.82% |
| Mar 2026 | $ 101,880 | $ 102,520 | $ 103,733 | 12.45% |
| Apr 2026 | $ 97,610 | $ 100,313 | $ 102,532 | 11.15% |
| May 2026 | $ 97,851 | $ 98,609 | $ 99,305 | 7.65% |
| Jun 2026 | $ 94,718 | $ 96,981 | $ 98,158 | 6.41% |
| Jul 2026 | $ 91,296 | $ 93,792 | $ 95,668 | 3.71% |
| Aug 2026 | $ 88,684 | $ 90,231 | $ 91,383 | -0.94% |
| Sep 2026 | $ 87,674 | $ 88,312 | $ 88,891 | -3.64% |
| Oct 2026 | $ 80,165 | $ 86,070 | $ 88,888 | -3.64% |
| Nov 2026 | $ 77,368 | $ 79,148 | $ 81,353 | -11.81% |
| Dec 2026 | $ 74,425 | $ 78,492 | $ 81,038 | -12.15% |
Disclaimer: This Bitcoin price forecast is based on predictive modeling and should not be considered financial advice. If you plan to invest, try doing your own research to finalize the investment points.
The Bottom Line: Bitcoin Remains Strong Despite the Whale Exit
Bitcoin has strong fundamentals and regulatory support despite the short-term fluctuations. While the exit of Owen Gunden after a 14-year-long holding is a significant concern, the crypto industry expects the arrival of traditional institutional inflows in the coming years. Bitcoin remains a worthy addition to a holder’s long-term portfolio, but the short-term volatility can also be expected.
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