Analyst Says Bitcoin Has Hit Midpoint of Bear Cycle — What’s Next for BTC?
Key Takeaways
- According to market expert Axel Adler, Bitcoin is now in the middle of a bearish cycle, which is the mildest in the history of Bitcoin.
- While the current correction stands at -32%, experts are looking to see if the correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% or if the asset will drop further to deeper declines of -60% to -70%.
- Experts believe that this episode will soon see a rebound, with Bitcoin climbing back to its bullish stance in the near future.
In early 2025, analysts predicted that Bitcoin would see a price rally and reach historically high prices. Contrary to this predicted bull run, Bitcoin had a bearish outlook in the market in 2025. According to market expert Axel Adler, Bitcoin is now in the middle of a bearish cycle.
Adler says that the current bear cycle is the mildest in the history of Bitcoin. It has shown stability this week, with the prices stabilizing between the range of $89,000-$94,000. Adler has observed that only 12% of the circulation supply of Bitcoin remains in loss, while a huge chunk of the supply is held in unrealized profit. Bitcoin’s price stabilization at $90,000 over the past week signals a mild drawdown.
While the current correction stands at -32%, experts are looking to see if the correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% or if the asset will drop further to deeper declines of -60% to -70%.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
The current bearish cycle is quite mild compared to previous bearish cycles in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023, where the loss percentage rose to 60%. Therefore, experts believe that this episode will soon see a rebound, with Bitcoin climbing back to its bullish stance in the near future.
If there happens to be a high institutional demand and support, the current bearish cycle will be flattened and shallow. If this is the case, Bitcoin will see occasional rallies and downfalls, but no sustained breakout will happen until broader macro or crypto-specific catalysts improve.
In another scenario, if major support fails or if negative catalysts such as regulatory pressure, liquidity shifts, or systemic shocks accumulate, the current phase will move to a deeper bearish cycle. However, potentially bullish occurrences such as the maturation of infrastructure, ETF approvals, or significant institutional adoption can lead to a bearish recovery.
Also Read: Bitcoin Price Prediction Today: Will the Fed Decision Fuel a BTC Rally or Disappoint?
What should Investors Watch Out for?
Experts warn that investors in Bitcoin should watch out for shifts in on-chain metrics such as unrealized profits/losses, capitulation indicators, and miner behavior to understand if sellers are still active or not. If the unrealized loss percentage lowers, the chances of price stabilization become high. Global liquidity, inflation trends, and risk sentiment are the metrics to be watched out for to understand the pulse of the market. Investors should also be aware of the key moving averages and critical support and resistance levels of Bitcoin to understand its future performance. Increased institutional flows via spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and more regulated products are also indicators of a potential bullish trend.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin is the most in-demand cryptocurrency for both individuals and institutional investors. Its strong stance in the market, such as being a digital gold, and its role in catalyzing new tech waves, such as DeFi, NFTs, and Layer‑2 scaling, make it an asset in high demand. Navigating the current bear cycle and rebounding to its lost glory is therefore necessary and will have wide implications for the whole crypto market.
Also Read: Standard Chartered Delays $500K Bitcoin Target, Revises Long-Term Outlook
Crypto & Blockchain Expert