Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s growth is in a stagnant phase.
- Signals are proving to be indicators of a bear run for Bitcoin in the coming days.
- Bitcoin may not recover as fast as it was expected to.
- Bitcoin may drop below the $100,000 mark without a proper rebound in the coming days.
With Bitcoin outperforming the US inflation rate of 3%, the crypto world is looking towards Bitcoin with renewed hope. The possibility for Bitcoin to recover its losses and make November the traditional winning month still seems to have a chance.
According to the CEO of Jan3 Samson Mow, a Bitcoin payments solution company, Bitcoin will have a bull run soon enough as it is marginally outperforming inflation. Whether Mow’s enthusiastic posts may become true or a fever dream is something to be waited for. However, we will dive into the price prediction for Bitcoin today.
Bitcoin’s Key Parameters
| Current Bitcoin Price | $103,459 |
|---|---|
| Current Bitcoin Market Capitalization | 2.06 Trillion US dollars |
| Current Bitcoin Volume | 58.85 Billion US dollars |
| Fear and Greed Index | 27 – Indicating Fear |
Bitcoin’s Narrow Escape From Deeper Falls
The brief fall of Bitcoin below the $100,000 mark had left enthusiasts in a panic. However, the narrow escape came when Bitcoin bounced back to $103,700. Even though this sudden fall and recovery had shifted the sentiment, all is not good with the overall sentiment.
As the Fear and Greed index marginally rose from 23 to 27, taking a climb from extreme fear to one of fear, Bitcoin may likely see a stable sideways market for the coming day.
According what the technical data, a 12% climb is necessary if we are to call it a full recovery towards building a bullish momentum.
Weak Money Flow Creates Bullish Crossovers
The 20-day and 200-day EMA(Exponential Moving Average) on the daily chart is not inducing confidence. The two signals are soon bound to form a bearish crossover on the daily chart.
Naturally, when shorter EMAs fall below longer EMAs, it is an indicator that buyers are losing power in the market. Strengthening this argument was the 50-day and 100-day EMAs crossover. It was after this crossover that Bitcoin had its catastrophic 10% dip.
There is yet another indicator whose value is a dominant and decisive indicator for price movements. It is called the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). The CMF has been negative since late October and hasn’t recovered yet. The CMF is an indicator of the capital entering or leaving the market. A negative CMF indicates that giant capital holders are still reluctant to enter the market.
This has a severe negative effect on the recovery chances of Bitcoin’s price. With such high liquidity in a locked position, the market is building bearish momentum.
The Lack of Confidence In The Post-Crash Bounce
From what can be observed about the Holder Net Position change, there is little to no confidence inspired by the rebound from Bitcoin’s dip below the $100,000 mark. Holder Net Position change measures the activities of older wallets, whether they are buying or selling.
Essentially, this measures the sentiment of the long-term holders. From November 2 to November 5, there was an additional sale of 8400 BTC, which is a strong indicator that investors are clearly losing confidence in the asset and that the market is driven primarily by traders.
Bitcoin Daily Price Prediction
| Daily High | $103,865 |
|---|---|
| Daily Low | $101,100 |
| Daily Average | $102,482 |
From what we can understand, the daily high will rise only by a small margin. This is reflective of the larger sentiment of fear and uncertainty. However, the selling pressure may not have built up to such a level that it could once again push Bitcoin below the $100,000 mark in a day’s time.
Bitcoin Forecast For The Week
| Date | Day of week | Daily Low | Daily High | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Friday | $102,851.1 | $105,195.64 | $104,023.37 |
| 08/11 | Saturday | $103,970.63 | $104,570.13 | $104,270.38 |
| 09/11 | Sunday | $104,047.16 | $105,255.65 | $104,651.41 |
| 10/11 | Monday | $99,882.38 | $104,755.64 | $102,319.01 |
| 11/11 | Tuesday | $93,520.18 | $101,304.64 | $97,412.41 |
| 12/11 | Wednesday | $93,542.62 | $98,540.38 | $96,041.5 |
| 13/11 | Thursday | $97,325.82 | $98,205.64 | $97,765.73 |
The forecast for the week shows an even darker price range for Bitcoin. With selling pressure building and the crossover between the 20-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicating a bearish momentum, the price may once again break key support levels and drop below the $100,000 mark.
Conclusion
From the analysis of the market, it seems that Bitcoin is on a downward trend for the time being. It may change, however, not in a week or a month. With long-term investors selling off their assets and low capital inflow, the chances that Bitcoin will once again gain momentum seem unlikely.
This has strengthened the contrarian analysis of the November hike. The traditional hike seems to be delayed by a lot or even reversed, according to certain industry experts. If this contrarian analysis gets more traction, the selling pressure could only increase.
Another important thing to notice is the lack of confidence in investors to utilize this low-down point as a feasible market entry site. Normally, when there are sudden dips and rebounds like those that happened this week, opportunistic buyers pool in; however, since the larger sentiment remains bearish, they may well be waiting for a better price point to enter the market.
| Disclaimer: These crypto price forecasts are based on predictive modeling and should not be considered financial advice. |