Traders on leading derivatives and prediction marketplaces are increasingly bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), placing bets that the apex cryptocurrency will achieve record highs by the end of the year, with overwhelming odds in favor of a target range between $120,000 and $150,000.
Aggregated open interest (OI), which represents the total notional value of all open futures and options contracts, for BTC futures has surged by 7% over the past 30 days, marking its first uptick since the 12% drawdown between May and June. This revival signals a potential shift in market sentiment, with traders preparing for a renewed bullish price volatility. As per the latest data, Bitcoin futures OI stands at $96 billion.
BTC Futures Open Interest Surges as Traders Prepare for Fresh Bullish Price Volatility
Typically, a rise in OI alongside price suggests a bullish trend as fresh capital enters the market to support an uptrend. However, according to experts, a confirmed price breakout may require OI growth to exceed 10%, combined with increased trading volumes.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Bitcoin Futures Market Power v2.0 indicator, which takes OI, funding rates, and taker-side aggression into account, is currently at 22,000. While this score is far away from the astronomical levels above 80,000 that were seen during past rallies, the metric reflects growing long-side pressure and a strengthening bullish case without any signs of the market overheating.
The indicator has turned positive for the first time since May, while back in April, a similar score in the 20,000 range signaled a price bottom for BTC.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s net futures positioning also moved into positive territory, with net long exposure to the flagship cryptocurrency rising to $27.4 million. This bullish stance has held above zero for more than 24 hours, suggesting even if the price consolidates near $108,000, traders are gradually increasing their long positions in anticipation of a bullish breakout.
Traders Bet on BTC Hitting $120K–$150K, Prediction Markets Show Confidence
At the same time, data from prediction marketplaces like Klashi and Polymarket reveals surging confidence in Bitcoin’s price. These platforms allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcome of real-world events, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of those outcomes.
On Kalshi, traders have assigned a 67% chance for Bitcoin to reach at least $125,000 by December 31, 2025, reflecting a 10% increase in confidence. The odds are 31% for BTC hitting $150,000 and 23% for surpassing the $160,000 mark before New Year’s Eve, with both showcasing modest gains across the board. The expectations of even higher price targets taper off at 12% for $180,000, 8% for $200,000, 4% for $250,000, 3% for $300,000, and just 2% betting on Bitcoin hitting $500,000 by the end of the year.
While at Polymarket, traders are exhibiting much stronger near-term bullishness. They are pricing in a 75% likelihood of Bitcoin hitting $120,000 or higher by the year’s end, with a 55% chance of $130,000, and 34% rooting for a $150,000 target. Just like Kalshi, the bets are lower for much loftier goals, with only 13% seeing a possibility of BTC hitting $200,000, while 7% are betting on $250,000, and a mere 3% believing in a $1 million Bitcoin in 2025.
By looking at data from both prediction markets, it is clear that the majority of traders are expecting Bitcoin to target valuations between the $120,000 and $150,000 range over the next six months. This highlights a cautiously optimistic market sentiment that is also increasingly confident in substantial upside potential for the alpha cryptocurrency.
Futures Traders Expect Bitcoin to Hit $130,000 as Early as September
In a recent market update, analysts at digital asset trading firm QCP Capital wrote that while Bitcoin trading volumes remain near historical lows, a decisive breach of the current resistance level at $110,000 could spark a renewed volatility bid.
The Singapore-based company noted that some large-scale traders are positioning themselves to take advantage of the volatility by continuing to add exposure to $130,000 calls in September while holding steadfast on $115,000 to $140,000 call spreads for the same month. According to the analysts, this underscores a “structurally bullish” outlook for Bitcoin in Q3 2025.
A call option allows the purchaser to buy an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before a specific date. This means that buyers of the $130,000 call option expect BTC’s spot price to rise above that level over the next three months.
Bitcoin has been stuck between the $100,000 and $110,000 range for nearly two months as selling activity by long-term holding wallets is counteracting substantial inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Price volatility may pick up where it left off as soon as the Federal Reserve releases its outlook for the U.S. economy on Wednesday. Another bullish case is that the Trump administration has extended the 90-day tariff pause to August 1, giving countries time to reach a concrete trade agreement with America.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $108,481, down 0.24% in the last 24 hours.
