Early U.S.-China Trade Deal Consensus Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally
Key Takeaways
- The upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Chinese presidents is expected to shape global market sentiment, especially for risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Traders anticipate a crypto market revival if trade tensions ease, but ongoing rare-earth restrictions could reverse bullish expectations.
- BTC remains stable near $114,000, with investors showing cautious optimism and limited risk exposure ahead of key decisions.
- Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered predicts that a positive trade outcome could make $100,000 the new Bitcoin floor.
As the presidents of two global powers are sitting down for a meeting on 30th October 2025, the crypto industry is in a state of confusion.
The general sentiment is hopeful about the meeting, and traders are betting on a market revival post the meeting and its decisions. However, both the US and China have to agree to rare-earth restrictions, which are in place now; there is a chance that this could potentially reverse all the predictions of a market revival.
Apart from the meeting, the Federal Reserve’s QT(quantitative tightening) is yet another decision the crypto market is awaiting. If the US Federal Reserve decides to maintain QT and raise interest rates, risk assets like cryptocurrencies could expect a bearish dominance.
On the other hand, if the US Federal Reserve decides to end QT and lower interest rates, the cryptocurrency markets may see a bullish run.
Market Before The Discussion
With Bitcoin prices stabilizing near the $114,000 mark, it seems that the market is preparing for a volatile week. However, with potential hedging positions open in the market, the implications are that investors are not ready to take full risk in this situation.
The Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, Geoff Kendrick, says this week is pivotal for Bitcoin. According to Mr. Kendrick, a positive outcome from the meeting could induce a bull run, which will result in $100,000 being the new floor for Bitcoin.
If the rare-earth export ban is lifted and China starts to import soybeans again from the US, the tariffs imposed at a rate of 100% for Chinese imports into the US may be lifted. This is a promising condition for risk-laden markets like cryptocurrencies.
The forex market is also showing signs of positivity as the USD-CNH pair has reached a low, indicating that the Chinese Yuan is strengthening before the discussions have even started.
There was a $2 billion exit from the US Gold ETF last week. This is a positive signal for Bitcoin’s bullish run. The shift from Gold could be an indicator of risk appetite returning to the investors, which might favor Bitcoin under the present conditions.
How Bitcoin Benefits From The Meeting
When the meeting is due on 30th October, Bitcoin is already showing signs of a bullish leg. One of the leading exchanges, Deribit, states that since the announcement of the meeting has gone official, the premiums for PUT options on Bitcoin have fallen to 2-3% compared to the 5% that was there during the October 10th tariff announcement.
Normally, when the global economy signals a positive outlook, the high-risk, high-return assets like cryptocurrencies gain popularity. The ‘risk-on’ environment is highly favorable to Bitcoin as it is perceived as a currency of high store value.
Additionally, during times like these, investors tend to pull their investments, which were locked in stable assets like US treasuries and bonds, to be utilized in the crypto market. This weakens the US dollar, which further raises the price of Bitcoin as it now takes more dollars to buy Bitcoin.
During times of trade wars, the central banks of nations like to tighten their grip on their native currency. This takes away liquidity from the market. And with low liquidity in the market, the chances of taking risks become narrower. As the meeting scheduled on the 30th is viewed with high hopes, this liquidity problem is largely solved; consequently, a risk appetite grows, which strengthens the price of Bitcoin, which is considered to be a risky asset.
Conclusion
With markets hoping for a renewed friendship between the two global powers, risk-laden assets like Bitcoin are expected to gain significant benefits. This will definitely unlock an upside for Bitcoin, given the discussion ends the way it was hoped to happen.
A possible trade war that is looming over the horizon has left some of the investors in a confused state; this is why there are some protective hedge options visible in the market. However, the general sentiment hopes that the discussion will end on a positive note, with both nations resolving their differences and the market significantly benefiting from it.
Also Read: A Crucial Week for Crypto: Trump–Xi Talks and Fed Move in Focus
Crypto & Blockchain Expert